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The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Sand Trap [$100K to 1st]
The Field
The PGA TOUR continues its run of visiting non-U.S.-based courses this week as it heads to Mexico for the World Wide Technology Championship. This is the 17th running of this event, which first took place back in 2007. This is a 132-man field with the highest-ranked players being Cameron Young (17th OWGR), Sahith Theegala (29th OWGR), and Ludvig Aberg (58th OWGR).
The event this year will feature a new course and venue for 2023. The El Cardonal at Diamante is located in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and will be a vastly different test in many regards from what the players have normally been up against at this event. We’ll break down the course more below, but realize that with a new course and a brand new location in Cabo (the West side and southern tip of the peninsula), this could end up being a pretty hard event to decipher.
Making it tougher for DFS and betting will be the lack of elite talent. As mentioned above, we only have a couple of names who currently rank inside the top 50 of the OWGR although names like Emiliano Grillo (35th OWGR), Adam Hadwin (48th OWGR), and Chris Kirk (47th OWGR) will help give this event a little more legitimacy. The cut line will remain as the standard format, with the top 65 players and ties making the weekend after Friday.
The Course
El Cardonal at Diamante in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
7,452-yard, par-72
This will be the first year this event is played at El Cardonal, a venue that also marks the very first designed course by Tiger Woods and his TGR design firm. Structurally, the venue sets up as a classic par 72 with four par 5s and four par 3s. The par 5s all measure in as shorter holes and clearly, the venue is emphasizing the need for players to take advantage of these scoring opportunities. At 7,452 yards, there are shorter par 4s in play as well but expect the par 5s to be where most of the field does their scoring.
From a setup perspective, here are Tiger’s words on the layout.
“I set up the golf strategy to make golfers think and make choices… There are going to be different ways to play every hole. Angles of approach are going to be very important and will dictate the type of shots you should consider. I love this kind of golf.”
The venue is very wide open and the fairways traverse through plenty of natural hills and mounds, with some sandtraps lurking that could potentially bring bogey or worse into play. Traversing these bunkers and some of the green side bunkers are likely what Woods was referring to when he made this statement. In some ways, the course does look similar to Riviera in setup but the fairways at Diamante are far wider and the course will likely play far firmer as well.
The greens may not play as firm as they are paspalum, a softer grass usually used on courses in hotter climates. However, the greens here are also massive and can be approached in numerous ways, making this very similar to some open championship venues. Overall, the open design and the wider setup with creative greens and fairways make this feel almost like a modern links venue. Look for those who have good histories playing at similar courses or in similar climates to potentially prosper the most.
2023 Weather Update: Despite this event having the potential for some really big wind gusts, it does look like we’ll get relatively mild conditions for 2023. The temperatures will be sunny (obviously) all four days with highs topping out in the hot but manageable range of 80-85 F. The winds will likely gust a little higher than forecast on the course — given how open it is — but aren’t expected to permanently hit higher than 7-8mph all week. I would still look to check the weather back on Wednesday before lock as even a small shift could affect how the waves play out. Morning starters may get a slightly softer course but that would only help if it came with lower winds as well.
Last 5 winners
2022—Russell Henley -23 (over Brian Harman -19)
2021—Viktor Hovland -23 (over Carlos Ortiz -19)
2020—Viktor Hovland -20 (over Aaron Wise -19)
2019—Brendon Todd -20 (over three players at -19)
2018—Matt Kuchar -22 (over Danny Lee)
Winning Trends
- Four of the last five winners had recorded a top-15 finish in one of their previous two starts before winning here.
- Each of the past five winners had played in at least one fall series event prior to winning this event.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2022 Winner: Russell Henley -23
(2021 lead-in: T45-MC-T35-MC-5th)
- Henley had played in Mexico in prior years so he was at least used to the climate and weather. The setup also favored a great iron player.
- Much like many of the past winners of this event, Henley didn’t play a heavy fall schedule but he had made starts in the fall (Sanderson and CJ Cup) prior to blowing the doors off this event and winning outright.
- The course this year will likely have some similarities to some of the more open-style venues on the PGA, where wind can play a bigger factor and more creative shotmaking and course management is needed — Albany’s championship golf course (Hero Open), St. Andrews (the Open), and TPC San Antonio are some of the comparable names to look at this week.
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Comparables:
- Akshay Bhatia +3500 and $9,200
- Adam Svennson +3500 and $9,300
Comparables:
- Justin Suh +4500 and $8,900
- Matt Kuchar +5000 and $8,700
- Mark Hubbard +5000 and $8,500
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
1. Beau Hossler ($9,900; T2-T7): Hossler is playing some good, consistent golf right now, which is very strange to see given how inconsistent he’s been over his career. His off-the-tee play has been stellar for most of his career but now his irons are firing — a win may be coming.
2. Sahith Theegala ($10,700; T19-win): Theegala held up well after his opening fall win at the Fortinet. He finished 19th at the Zozo and certainly has the around-the-green game and timely putting needed to deal with a different course and potentially windy conditions this week.
3. Luke List ($9,000; T18-win): List may be about to go on the kind of veteran run that we saw players like Jason Kokrak and Jimmy Walker go on in their mid-30s. He’s already won once in the fall and his around the green game is now matching his elite ball-striking on a weekly basis.
4. JJ Spaun ($9,400; T6-T46): Spaun is quietly racking up some good results again. He was 11th at the Fortinet and 6th two weeks ago in Japan. His irons are firing and his lone win came in Texas at another open venue with challenging course routing.
5. Ludvig Aberg ($11,200; T13-T2): Aberg continues to produce for DFS players, week-in, week-out. The Swede has posted 20 or more birdies in five straight starts and shot a final round 62 to finish T13 at the Shriners.
Cash Games: Trust the big guns
There will be lots made about the volatility involved with predicting a new course but for DFS the best players are still the best players. Expect both Cameron Young ($10,900 — see below) and Ludvig Aberg ($11,200) to still produce in a spot like this, especially with both men chasing their first PGA win. I talked about Young below and how well the course may set up for him but Aberg has a similar game and certainly isn’t to be avoided in these kinds of formats for DFS. There are numerous short par 5s and we have wind that is likely to stay down and let these big hitters take advantage. Further down, Akshay Bhatia ($9,200) has appeal for similar reasons and both Sam Ryder ($7,600) and Callum Tarren ($7,600) have shown good ball striking of late and should be able to navigate the contours of this bigger course.
Tournaments: Don’t sleep on Spaun and List
JJ Spaun ($9,400) and Luke List ($9,000) are two veterans who have been making some noise of late. List won in wild fashion a few events ago at the Sanderson Farms when a leader fell apart late and he was able to sink a monster putt to win a five-man playoff. He remains a great ball striker whose around-the-green game has been gaining him a lot of strokes lately. He’ll likely find the open venue good for his game given his length off the tee. Spaun has handled venues like this well before, with his only win coming in Texas at another big venue in TPC San Antonio. Both men have been striking it well and it wouldn’t be shocking to see either get in contention this week. Other names to consider for this format include Cameron Champ ($7,800), Matti Schmid ($7,200) and Jimmy Walker ($6,700).
MY PICK: Cameron Young ($10,900)
I hate to go so vanilla in an event like this but there are a lot of reasons that make sense for this week to be “the one” where Cameron Young finally strikes. The open venue looks like it will have plenty of room off the tee and Young has been great at navigating similar style venues like St. Andrews (2nd in 2022) and Albany Championship Course (Hero Challenge). The open nature of the fairways at Diamante has plenty of rolling hills and mounds, which may allow shorter hitters more roll but also get them in trouble with poor bounces. Young should be able to bypass a lot of those issues and dominate on the numerous short par 5s.
Whatever the case, Young has proven more adept at these kinds of venues where traditional around-the-green games aren’t as necessary. My only concern would be that Young hasn’t played since the FedEx playoffs, but he was showing good form with the putter and a little improved short game prior to that. You also have to like the narrative factor of Young sitting and watching the USA team play in the Ryder Cup last month, given that he finished inside the top 12 for qualifying but was left out due to the Captain bypassing him for other players. Young should be revved to go and prove his worth in what is certainly a wide-open field where he has few, if any peers.
MY SLEEPER: Troy Merritt ($7,200)
We could make a case for an endless number of names in a field and event like this where there are so many variables (new course, wind, form). I settled on Troy Merritt for my sleeper and I have to admit, I do like it quite a bit. Merritt’s issues on the PGA have often come from a lack of consistency off the tee, which has generally not let him compete at any venue where off-the-tee prowess (or consistency) is necessary for success.
That said, he’s shown good upside with his irons at various points in his career and remains a wizard on and around the greens, capable of getting hot in that area at any time. Lately, he’s been much improved off the tee (gained over 1.5 strokes OTT in four straight starts) and has been scrambling extremely well (3rd in strokes gained ATG over the last 50 rounds). A few events back, his irons were grooving (9th at Fortinet) and if he can find some form there again, this is an event where I think he can compete — given his new prowess off the tee.
He makes sense as both a DFS value target and a top 10/20 (+900, +360) play on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Sand Trap [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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