Slight rain chances enter Thanksgiving week forecast in Texas

No, it’s not time to cancel your outdoor holiday plans. Most areas across Texas are still expected to stay completely dry for Thanksgiving. However, early-week rain in East Texas could slow Thanksgiving travel, and some weather models are even indicating slight rain chances by Thursday. Here’s a breakdown of the very latest.

Before we get into Thanksgiving, let’s take a look at what kind of weather San Antonio is expecting for the weekend. After a weak cold front swept through Friday night, temperatures will fall several degrees from where they were the previous day. Saturday morning’s temperatures are expected to start in the upper 50s before rising slowly through the day.

By noon, temperatures will have risen to the mid-60s in San Antonio, and afternoon high temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Mostly cloudy skies are expected, but we won’t have rain in South Texas on Saturday.

Sunday’s weather will be similar with only a few minor changes. Afternoon high temperatures will likely rise just a degree or two higher than on Saturday under mostly cloudy skies. We will also have a small rain chance by the late afternoon and evening, but overall odds are only 10% in San Antonio.

Most of Monday is going to be quite warm as temperatures rise to the upper 70s by the afternoon, potentially even to 80 degrees in a few spots. A stronger cold front will surge through South Texas by Monday night, setting up below-average temperatures for the rest of the week.

A few showers and storms will be possible as the front moves through the area. Again, chances in San Antonio will be slim, only reaching about 20%. Higher chances will be in East Texas, in places like Tyler, Nacogdoches and Houston.

By Tuesday, temperatures will be significantly cooler across the state, including in San Antonio. Highs will be five to 10 degrees below average, reaching the 60s in the afternoon. It will be quite a blustery day, too, as wind speeds stay sustained near 20 mph. Overnight and into early Wednesday, low temperatures will fall into the low to mid-40s.

So far, the chance of rain on Thanksgiving in San Antonio is small, but it’s also not zero. Most weather models keep South Texas dry through the end of the week.

However, the American GFS weather model shows development of a strong, slow-moving low pressure system in northern Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday. If this were to happen, showers would be possible on Thanksgiving Day in San Antonio.

Most other weather models are far less dramatic, showing much weaker and faster-moving low pressure troughs. These solutions would result in cool, partly sunny conditions for Thanksgiving as high temperatures stay in the 60s. That is the most likely outcome.

With all that being said, rain chances in San Antonio are only 10% to 20% on Thanksgiving Day. That number will likely move higher or lower in future forecasts as the weather models come together. You will want to stay updated in the coming days at expressnews.com/san-antonio-weather as the forecast becomes a bit more clear.